Asian Institute of Research, Journal Publication, Journal Academics, Education Journal, Asian Institute
Asian Institute of Research, Journal Publication, Journal Academics, Education Journal, Asian Institute

Economics and Business

Quarterly Reviews

ISSN 2775-9237 (Online)

asian institute research, jeb, journal of economics and business, economics journal, accunting journal, business journal, managemet journal
asian institute research, jeb, journal of economics and business, economics journal, accunting journal, business journal, managemet journal
asian institute research, jeb, journal of economics and business, economics journal, accunting journal, business journal, managemet journal
asian institute research, jeb, journal of economics and business, economics journal, accunting journal, business journal, managemet journal
open access

Published: 26 June 2020

Climate Change and Cocoa Production in Côte d’Ivoire: Should we Worry?

Yao Vianney Auriol Koissy, Felix Fofana N’Zué

Alassane Ouattara University in Bouaké (Côte d’Ivoire), Université Félix Houphouet Boigny Abidjan (Côte d’Ivoire) & Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS Commission)

asian institute research, jeb, journal of economics and business, economics journal, accunting journal, business journal, management journal

Download Full-Text Pdf



Pages: 965-979

Keywords: Climate change, Cocoa yield, Time series, Bounds tests


This study investigates the effects of climate change on cocoa production in Côte d'Ivoire. The data ranged from 1961 to 2016. An ARDL model was used to investigate short and long-run dynamics between climate variables and cocoa yield. We found that in the short run, high temperatures have negative impact on cocoa trees and rainfall has a positive impact on cocoa yield. In the long run, while increase in rainfall may negatively impact cocoa yield, increases in temperature could be beneficial to cocoa yield in the country. Given IPCC’s weather predictions for the country there is need to worry.


  1. Afriyie-Kraft, L., Zabel, A., and Damnyag, L. (2020). Adaptation strategies of Ghanaian cocoa farmers under a changing climate. Forest Policy and Economics, 113.

  2. Angstrom, A. (1936). A coefficient of humidity of general applicability. Geografiska analer, 18(11),67-79.

  3. Carr, M. K., & Laockwood, G. (2011). The water relation and irragation requirements of Cocoa (Theobroma Cacao). Experimental Agriculture., 47(4),653-676.

  4. Cline, W. R. (1996). The impact of global warming on agriculture: comment. The American Economic Review, 86(5),1301-1309

  5. Conseil Café Cacao (2017). Evolution de la filière café-cacao de 2012 à 2017. Abidjan, Plateau.: 4ème édition des journées nationales du cacao et du chocolat.

  6. Darwin, R., Tsigas, M. E., Lewandrowski, J., and Raneses, A. (1995). “World agriculture and climate change: Economic adaptation’’, Agricultural Economics Reports 33933, United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service.

  7. Deressa, T., Hassan, R., & Poonyth, D. (2005). Measuring the impact of climate change on South African agriculture: the case of sugar-cane growing regions. Agrekon, 44(4), 524-542.

  8. Deschênes, O., and Greestone, M. (2007). The Economic impacts of climate change: evidence from agricultural profits and random fluctuation in weather. American Economic Review, 97(1),354-385.

  9. Ehisuoria, S. E., and Ilenre, A. E. (2018). The impact of rainfall and temperature on cocoa Yield in Ekpoma, Edo State, Nigeria. Confluence Journal of Environmental Studies, 12(2),36-45.

  10. Eitzinger, A., Farrell, A., Rhiney, K., Carmona, S., Van Lossen , I., & Taylor, M. (2015). Trinidad & Tobago: assessing the impact of climat change and cocoa tomato. Brief No. 27. Centro Internacional de Agricultura Tropical (CIAT), Cali, Colombia, 6.

  11. FAO. (2019). [Food and Agriculture Organisation of United Nations] FAOSTAT Database.

  12. Friedman, R. (2014). Cocoa in changing climate: Projecting Hot Spots of Vulnerability. ResearchGate. .

  13. Gateau-Rey, L., Edmund, V. J., Bruno, R., Jean-Philippe, M., and Stefan, R. (2018). climate change could threaten cocoa production: effects of 2015-2016 El NIno-related drought on cocoa Agroforests in Bahia, Brazil. PLoS ONE. Agroforests in , 13 (7).

  14. Granger, C., and Engle, R. (1987). Co-integration and Error correction: Representation, Estimation, and testing. Econometrica, 55(2),251-276.

  15. Guan, Z., Lansink, A. O., Van Ittersum, M., and Wossink, A. (2006). Integrating Agronomic Principles into Production Function Specification: A Dichotomy of Growth Inputs and Facilitating Inputs. American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 88,203-214.

  16. Harris , I. C., and Jones, P. D. (2017.). CRU TS4.01: Climatic Research Unit (CRU) Time-Series (TS) version4.01 of high resolution gridded data of month-by-month variation in climate (jan.1901-Dec.2016). Centre for Environmental Data Analysis. Available at:

  17. Hutchins, A., A. Tamargo, C. Bailey and Y. Kim (2015). Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Cocoa Production and Approaches to Adaptation and Mitigation: A Contextual View of Ghana and Costa Rica. International Development Studies, Capstone 2015 Client: World Cocoa Foundation.

  18. Jacobi, J., Schneider, M., Bottazzi, P., Pillco, M., Calizaya, P., and Rist, S. (2013). Agroecosystem resilience and farmer's perceptions of climate change impacts on cocoa farms in Alto Beni, Bolivia. Renewable Agriculture and Food Systems, 30(2),170-183.

  19. Johansen, S. (1988). Statistical Analysis of Cointegration Vectors. Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12,231-254.

  20. Kigmensi, J. N., and Tosam , J. N. (2013). Climate variability and Cocoa production in Meme divion of Cameroon: Agricultural Development polcy options. Greener Journal of agricultural Sciences, 3(8),606-617.

  21. Läderach, P., Lundy, M., Jarvis, A., Ramirez, J., Perez, P. E., & Al. (2010). "Predicted impact of climate change of Coffee-supply chaines". In leal filho, w (ed) The economic social and political element of climate change, Springer Verlag, Berlin chapter 42.

  22. Läderach, P., Martinez, A., Schroth, G., & Castro, N. (2013). Predicting future climatique suitability for Cocoa farming of the World's leading producer countries Ghanan, and Côte d'Ivoire. Clim Chang, 119,841-854.

  23. Lobell, D. B., Burke, M. B., Tebaldi, C., Mastrandrea, M. D., Falcom, W. P., & Laylor, R. L. (2008). Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030. Science, 319,607-610.

  24. Losch, B. (2000). Coup de cacao en Côte d'Ivoire: économie politique d'une crise structurelle.

  25. Mendelsohn, R., Nordhaus, W., & Shaw, D. (1994). The impact of global warming on agriculture: A Ricardian analysis. American Economic Review, 85,753-771.

  26. Moraes, W. B., Jesus Junior, W. C., Peixoto, L. A., Moraes , W. B., Furtado, E. L., Silva, L. G., and Alves, F. R. (2012). An analysis of the risk of cocoa moniliasis occurrence in Brazil as the result of climate change. Summa Phytopathologica, 38(1),30-35

  27. N'Zué, F. F. (2018). Does climate change have real negative impact on economic growth in poor countries? Evidence from Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast). Management and Economics Research Journal, 4,204-222.

  28. Ofori-Boateng, K., and Insah, B. (2011). An ampirical analysis of the impact of climate change on cocoa production in selected countries in West Africa. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 13(8),24-50.

  29. Ofori-Boateng, K., & Insah, B. (2014). The impact of climate change on cocoa production in West Africa. International Journal of Climate Change Strategies and Management, 6(3),296-314.

  30. Ojo, A. D., and Sadiq, I. (2010). Effect of climate change on cocoa yield: a case of Cocoa Research Institute (CRIN) farm, Oluyole Local Government Ibadan Oyo State. Journal of Sustainable Development in Africa, 12(1),350-358.

  31. Oyekale, A. S., Bolaji, M. B., and Olowa, O. W. (2009). The effects of climate change on cocoa production and vulnerability assessment in Nigeria. Agricultural Journal, 4(2),77-85.

  32. Pesaran, M. H., Shin, Y., and Smith , R. J. (2001). Bounds Testing Approaches to the Analysis of Level Relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16: 289-326.

  33. PNCC [Programme National Changement Climatique] (2014). Document de Strategie du Programme National changement climatique (2015-2020).

  34. PNUD [Programme des Nations Unies pour le Développement] (Mai 2013). Etude de Vulnérabilité du Secteur Agricole face aux Changements Climatique en Côte d'Ivoire.

  35. Raufu, M. O., Kibirige, D., and Singh, A. S. (2015). Perceived effect of climate change on cocoa production in South Western Nigeria. International Journal of Development and Sustainability, 4 (5): 529-536.

  36. Robertson, T., Benson, V.W., Williams, J. R., Jones, C. A., and Kiniry, J. R. (1987). “Impact of climate change in the Southern United States “, Proceedings of the Symposium on climate change in Southern US: Impacts and present Policy Issues. Science and Public Policy Program, University of Oklahoma, Norman, Oklahoma.

  37. Rosenzweig, C. (1985). Potential CO2-Induced on Effects on North American Wheat Producing Regions. Climate Change, 7: 367-389

  38. Schroth, G., Läderach, P., Dempewolf, J., Philpott, S., Haggar, J., & et al. (2009). Towards a climate change adaptation strategy for coffee communities and ecosystems in the Sierra Madre de Chiapas, Mexico. Mutig Adapt Strateg Glob change, 14: 605-625.

  39. Schroth, G., Läderach , P., Martinez-Valle, A. I., Bunn, C., and Jassogne, L. (2016). Vulnerability to climate change of cocoa in West Africa: Patterns, opportunities and limits to adaptation. Science of the Total Environment , 556: 231-241.

  40. Schroth, G., Läderach, P., Martinez-Valle, A. I., and Bunn, C. (2017). Fromsite-level to regional adaptation planning for tropical commodities: cocoa in West Africa. Mitig Adapt Strateg Glob Change, 22: 903-927.

  41. Steijn, C., & Desk Research. (2018). Demystifying the cocoa sector of Côte d'Ivoire and Ghana. Sustainable Economic Developpement and Gender.

  42. UN-REDD (2018). Production durable de Cacao en Côte d’Ivoire: Besoins et Solutions de Financement pour les petits producteurs.

  43. Utomo, B., Prawoto, A. A., Bonnet, S., Bangviwat, A., & Gheewala, S. H. (2015). Environmental performance of cocoa production from monoculture and agroforestery systems in Indonesia. Journal of Cleaner Production, .

  44. Vigneri, M., Sera, R., and Cardenas, A. L. (2016). Researching the Impact of Increased Cocoa Yields on the Labour Market and Child Labour Risk in Ghana and Côte d’Ivoire. ICI Labour market research study.

  45. Wessel , M., and Quist-Wessel Foluke, P. M. (2015). Cocoa production in West Africa, a review and analysis of recent developments. NJAS - Wageningen Journal of Life Sciences, 74(75),1-7.

  46. World Bank (2018). Pour que demain ne meure jamais: la Côte d'Ivoire face au changement climatique. Situation économique en Côte d'Ivoire, Juillet 2018/Septième édition.

  47. World Bank (2019). World Development Indicators from .

  48. World Bank (2019. Au pays du cacao: comment transformer la Côte d'Ivoire. Situation économique en Côte d'Ivoire, Juillet 2019/neuvioème édition.