Decoding a Market Share Anomaly in Rural Telecommunications: Perception, Behavior, and Execution Drivers in Rural Banten, Indonesia
- AIOR Admin
- Jul 15
- 1 min read
Raden Agie Satria Akbar, Ilma Aulia Zaim, Jacob Silas Mussry
Institut Teknologi Bandung, Bandung, Indonesia
Telkomsel held a 48.6% national mobile market share in 2025, yet its share in Branch Serang, covering six geographic regions of Banten province, stood at only 25.38% as of February 2026, a 23-percentage-point anomaly that cannot be explained by network coverage or price. This study investigates the drivers of the gap and develops evidence-based strategic initiatives for market share recovery. A convergent parallel mixed methods design grounded in a pragmatic philosophy was employed. The qualitative strand comprised in-depth interviews with three senior informants representing commercial, analytical, and field-execution perspectives, analyzed thematically following Braun and Clarke. The quantitative strand comprised a structured survey of 347 rural prepaid customers across the six Branch Serang clusters, analyzed through descriptive statistics, chi-square cross-tabulation, and behavioral segmentation. The integrated findings identify five interlocking drivers: a persistent premium perception strongest among non-users (3.53–3.79 versus 3.24 for current users), consistent with cognitive dissonance; behavioural inertia reinforced by family and community norms; structural ARPU decline from home WiFi adoption (66.6% of respondents reducing mobile data purchases); an underserved youth segment (Telkomsel share of 46.7% at ages 12–17 versus 71.7% at 35–44; p = 0.001); and constrained branch-level execution authority. Four behavioral segments were identified, with young swing voters prioritized as the strategic acquisition target. The study contributes empirical evidence to Cognitive Dissonance Theory, the BJ Fogg Behavior Model, and the bottom-of-the-pyramid literature in an emerging-market rural telecommunications context, and offers a transferable, evidence-based recovery roadmap built on grassroots community programs, outlet incentives, and youth-specific positioning.
Interesting research—it’s always fascinating to see how customer perception and local execution can influence market share beyond just pricing or coverage. On a lighter note, when I’m taking a break from reading studies like this, I like playing Stickman Hook since it’s simple, fun, and a nice way to relax for a few minutes.